What Do the Tariffs Against Canada, Mexico, and China Mean for Oregon?
1The Proposal
On February 1, President Donald Trump issued three executive orders imposing steep tariffs on the United States' top trading partners: Canada, Mexico, and China. Citing national security concerns over immigration and fentanyl trafficking, the administration invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to levy across-the-board 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico, 25 percent tariffs on Canada except for energy products (taxed at 10 percent), and a 10 percent across-the-board tariff on China and Hong Kong.
The tariffs on imports from China and Hong Kong took effect on February 4. Initially scheduled to take effect at the same time, tariffs on Canada and Mexico were postponed until March 12. Several other new tariff threats have been issued in the interim — including new tariffs related to steel and aluminum, "reciprocal" tariffs, and autos — that will be addressed in a future policy brief.
There will be significant national economic implications should all these tariffs take effect. Based on 2024 data, the new rates would have resulted in an estimated $246 billion more tariffs, or over $928 million in extra taxes on U.S. importers per day.1
2Impacts for Oregon
The economic impacts for Oregon would be significant. Canada, Mexico, and China account for over a quarter of the state's imports, totaling $7.3 billion in 2024. Due to nearly universal duty-free treatment under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Oregon businesses paid $4.2 million in tariffs on $4.7 billion in imports from Mexico and Canada — an effective tariff rate of just 0.09%. Tariffs on imports from China are much higher, averaging nearly 14%, due to additional Section 301 tariffs imposed starting in 2018. The $371 million in tariffs that Oregon companies paid on imports from China far exceeded the approximately $220 million in tariffs paid on imports from all other countries combined.
Given the importance of these markets, the cost of the newly proposed tariffs could have major consequences for Oregon businesses and consumers. Altogether, the new measures could cost Oregon companies an estimated $1.4 billion. For context, the state paid only $590 million in total tariffs on all imports from all countries in 2024, meaning the new proposal could more than triple the total tariff burden.
3Tariffs on Canada
Tariffs on Canada would be the most impactful. In 2024, Oregon imported $3.8 billion of goods from Canada, about 14% of Oregon's total imports. Yet Oregon companies paid only $2.5 million in tariffs on Canadian imports due to the USMCA. The new 10% tariff on energy imports and 25% tariff on everything else would have added an estimated $888 million in new taxes based on 2024 data, or about $2.4 million per day.
Oregon farmers could suffer from higher fertilizer costs, while building products including semifinished iron and steel products, veneer sheets, lumber, and wooden boards are the other products that could face the most new tariffs.
| Product | Import Value, 2024 | Tariffs Paid, 2024 | Potential New Tariffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fertilizers | $706 million | $0 | $176 million |
| Semifinished iron & steel products | $171 million | $0 | $43 million |
| Veneer sheets | $145 million | $0 | $36 million |
| Lumber | $143 million | $0 | $36 million |
| Wooden boards | $130 million | $0 | $33 million |
| All other imports | $2.5 billion | $2.5 million | $564 million |
⚠️ Sole-Source Dependency Risk
Canada is Oregon's sole import source of unwrought nickel, electrical energy, and about $26 million worth of other products. With no existing relationships with potential alternative sources, it is more difficult for Oregon businesses and families to avoid the $12 million in potential new tariff costs associated with these products.
4Tariffs on China
China is Oregon's fourth-largest source of imports. The $2.7 billion in goods purchases from China accounted for nearly 10 percent of Oregon's total imports in 2024. The 10% tariff, which took effect on February 4 and is imposed on top of current most-favored nation and Section 301 tariffs, could cost Oregon businesses over $250 million in tariffs annually, roughly $700,000 per day. Imports from Hong Kong are minimal, totaling just $8 million in 2024, so expected costs associated with those 10% tariffs will have less impact.
Unlike Canada, many of Oregon's imports from China are technology and finished consumer goods where retail prices paid by Oregon households could soon rise. Top imports from China include batteries, phones, computers, men's and boy's suits, and footwear. Notably, many tech imports such as phones and computers arrive by air instead of ocean carrier, meaning tariffs are already being collected despite the exemption for "in-transit" goods.
| Product | Import Value, 2024 | Tariffs Paid, 2024 | Potential New Tariffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batteries | $881 million | $99 million | $88 million |
| Phones | $68 million | $4.0 million | $6.8 million |
| Computers | $59 million | $1.7 million | $5.9 million |
| Men's and boy's suits | $44 million | $5.4 million | $4.4 million |
| Footwear | $38 million | $5.6 million | $3.8 million |
| All other imports | $1.6 billion | $255 million | $149 million |
5Tariffs on Mexico
Mexico is Oregon's tenth-largest source of imports in 2024. Total imports were approximately $829 million. Like Canada, these products face very few tariffs due to USMCA, and the average tariff rate on Oregon's imports from Mexico was just 0.21%. Yet Oregon companies could face potential new tariffs of $560,000 per day if the threatened IEEPA tariffs on Mexico take effect.
Oregon's top imports from Mexico include tractors, insulated wire, electrical apparatuses, medical equipment, and vehicle parts. These products, which account for nearly half of Mexican imports into Oregon, could face a collective $100 million in new tariff costs annually.
| Product | Import Value, 2024 | Tariffs Paid, 2024 | Potential New Tariffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tractors | $106 million | $1,777 | $27 million |
| Insulated wire | $105 million | $494,000 | $26 million |
| Electrical apparatuses | $69 million | $66,000 | $17 million |
| Medical equipment | $61 million | $0 | $15 million |
| Vehicle parts | $59 million | $486,000 | $15 million |
| All other imports | $428 million | $689,000 | $104 million |
🍌 Consumer Produce at Risk
Mexico is a primary source of Oregon's imports of bananas, citrus fruits, melons, and papayas — produce that Oregon consumers rely on for year-round availability and affordability. A 25% tariff on Mexican imports would raise costs throughout the supply chain, ultimately affecting grocery prices for Oregon families.
6Conclusion
Oregon businesses should expect major consequences if President Trump's newly announced tariffs take effect on all three countries. Even if the Canada and Mexico tariffs never come into effect, the threat alone could harm Oregon as companies wait for more certainty before making new investments or hiring decisions.
At the same time, the China tariffs alone could cost $700,000 per day for primarily consumer products — money that could be better spent investing in companies and workers or lowering prices for their customers.
WCIT will continue to monitor these developments and advocate for trade policies that protect the Pacific Northwest's open, rules-based trading relationships with its closest partners.
References
- All data are from Trade Partnership Worldwide's State Tariff Tracker. tradepartnership.com/data/the-state-tariff-tracker/. Note: The numbers for China were calculated based on the 10% tariff put in place on February 4, 2025.