What Do the Tariffs Against Canada, Mexico, and China Mean for Oregon?

The Proposal

On February 1, President Donald Trump issued three executive orders imposing steep tariffs on the United States’ top trading partners: Canada, Mexico, and China. Citing national security concerns over immigration and fentanyl trafficking, the administration invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”) to levy across-the-board 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico, 25 percent tariffs on Canada except for energy products, which is taxed at 10 percent—and a 10 percent across-the-board tariff on China and Hong Kong.

The tariffs on imports from China and Hong Kong took effect on February 4. Initially scheduled to take effect at the same time, tariffs on Canada and Mexico were postponed until March 12. (Several other new tariff threats have been issued in the interim – including new tariffs related to steel and aluminum, “reciprocal” tariffs, and autos – that will be addressed in a future policy brief.)

There will be significant national economic implications should all these tariffs take effect. Based on 2024 data, the new rates would have resulted in an estimated $246 billion more tariffs, or over $928 million in extra taxes on U.S. importers per day.[1]

Impacts for Oregon

The economic impacts for Oregon would be significant. Canada, Mexico, and China account for over a quarter of the state’s imports, totaling to $7.3 billion in 2024. Due to nearly universal duty-free treatment under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Oregon businesses paid $4.2 million in tariffs on $4.7 billion in imports from Mexico and Canda – or an effective tariff rate of just 0.09%. Tariffs on imports from China are much higher – averaging nearly 14% – due to additional Section 301 tariffs imposed starting in 2018. The $371 million in tariffs that Oregon companies paid on imports from China far exceeded the approximately $220 million in tariffs paid on imports from all other countries combined.

Given the importance of the markets, the cost of the newly proposed tariffs could have major consequences for Oregon businesses and consumers. Altogether, the new measures could cost Oregon companies an estimated $1.4 billion. For context, the state paid only $590 million in total tariffs on all imports from all countries in 2024, meaning the new proposal could more than triple the total tariff burden.

Tariffs on Canada

Tariffs on Canada would be the most impactful. In 2024, Oregon imported $3.8 billion of goods from Canada, about 14% of Oregon’s total imports. Yet Oregon companies paid only $2.5 million in tariffs on Canadian imports due to the USMCA. The new 10% tariff on energy imports and 25% tariff on everything else would have added an estimated $888 million in new taxes based on 2024 data, or about $2.4 million per day.

Oregon farmers could suffer from higher fertilizer costs, while building products including semifinished iron and steel products, veneer sheets, lumber, and wooden boards are the other products that could face the most new tariffs.

Canada is Oregon’s sole import source of unwrought nickel, electrical energy, and about $26 million worth of imports of other products. No existing relationships with potential alternative sources makes it more difficult for Oregon businesses and families to avoid the $12 million in potential new tariff costs associated with these products.

Tariffs on China

China is Oregon’s fourth-largest source of imports. The $2.7 billion in goods purchases from China accounted for nearly 10 percent of Oregon’s total imports in 2024. The 10% tariff, which took effect on Feb. 4 and is imposed on top of current most-favored nation and Section 301 tariffs, could cost Oregon businesses over $250 million in tariffs annually, roughly $700,000 per day. Imports from Hong Kong are minimal, totaling just $8 million in 2024, so expected costs associated with those 10% tariffs will have less impact.

Unlike Canada, many of Oregon’s imports from China are technology and finished consumer goods where retail prices paid by Oregon households could soon rise. Top imports from China include batteries, phones, computers, men’s and boy’s suits, and footwear. Notably, many tech imports such as phones and computers arrive by air instead of ocean carrier, meaning tariffs are already being collected despite the exemption for “in-transit” goods.

Tariffs on Mexico

Mexico is Oregon’s tenth-largest source of imports in 2024. Total imports were approximately $829 million. Like Canada, the products face very few tariffs due to USMCA, and the average tariff rate on Oregon’s imports from Mexico was just 0.21%. Yet Oregon companies could face potential new tariffs of $560,000 per day if the threatened IEEPA tariffs on Mexico take effect in March.

Oregon’s top imports from Mexico include tractors, insulated wire, electrical apparatuses, medical equipment, and vehicle parts. These products, which account for nearly half of Mexican imports into Oregon, could face a collective $100 million in new tariff costs annually.

Mexico is a primary source of Oregon’s imports of bananas, citrus fruits, melons, and papayas—produce options that Oregon consumers rely on for year-round availability and affordability.

Conclusion

Oregon businesses should expect major consequences if President Trump’s newly announced tariffs take effect on all three countries. Even if the Canada and Mexico tariffs never come into effect, the threat alone could harm Oregon as companies wait for more certainty before making new investments or hiring decisions. At the same time, the China tariffs alone could cost $700,000 per day for primarily consumer products – money that could be better spent investing in companies and workers or lowering prices for their customers.

[1] All data are from Trade Partnership Worldwide’s State Tariff Tracker.

Note: The numbers for China were calculated based on the 10% tariff put in place on February 4, 2025.